Glad Thaidings from the Land Of Smiles

An economic downturn with no end in sight, soaring unemployment and business failures, growing poverty, political chaos and social unrest? Just one or two of these is more than enough to guarantee an explosion of gloom and doom in the West...

(Click to see full-size pic)... Watching this fire rage out of control last week led me to thinking how illusory human control of events, the permanence of prosperity, can be. A quiet crowd of people looked on as the fire ravaged a timber yard, reducing it to ashes.

... So what happens in Thailand when times are tough? The exact opposite according to the Assumption University's annual research into the Thai people's 'Gross Domestic Happiness', as we head into 2009. Despite a recent history including a military coup, huge disruption to tourism with the airport occupations, a tsunami that killed more than 10,000, demonstrations ending in violence and deaths, increasing economic difficulties, the Thais remain relatively optimistic in the face of adversity. The countrywide survey of over 4,000 people showed a climb in 'GDH' to a coefficient of 6.81 points from 6.55 in 2007 (out of a possible 10).

Not that Thailand figured particularly high in the world's happiness league table last year, according to the much-quoted 2007 White study "A Global Projection of Subjective Well-Being"... but the interesting fact is that while contentedness with one's lot has plummeted in the West over the past year, in cultures less oriented towards the accumulation of wealth their peoples are apparently considerably more stoical about a potential increase in hardship.

Moving on to the political arena, today's Bangkok Post international online poll suggested that respondents are overwhelmingly behind the redshirt UDD (National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship) movement.

Current returns (10,000+ votes so far, closing date Jan 5th):

"Do you agree with the red-shirt protest against the new government?"

• 27% - No, give the government some time
• 51% - Yes, I agree with the red-shirted people
• 1% - Not sure. This is not really my concern
• 6% - No, the Democrats are good to lead
• 15% - Yes, the Democrats are not good to lead

The huge poster behind the speakers says "We Love Democracy"... (click to see full-size photo).

With the UDD protesters on the march today in an attempt to prevent the Democratic coalition from making its policy statement on Monday, events this week will be a crunch indicator of the strength of the movement. Thaksin's influence seems to be seriously on the wane (his fortune allegedly shrinking to well under a 'mere' 1$billion according to certain press claims this week... frozen assets, plus his investments taking a clobbering in the current economic climate...) So how effective can a disjointed and underfinanced movement be, irrespective of its extensive grassroots backing, in a country such as Thailand? The powerful interest groups massed against the UDD are very aware of the Thai people's conflict-avoidance mentality, combined with a determinedly fatalistic outlook, and no doubt are counting on these factors to ram home the advantage gained via what some observers have described as their 'stooge' PAD movement over the past year - aimed towards a backdoor erosion of democratic rights in Thailand.

So despite all the indications that the contradictions and conflicts within Thai society are far from resolved, despite the economic turmoil, the Thais keep on smiling. Does this reflect naive optimism? Do they know something we don't? Do they measure happiness by less materialistic criteria? If the latter, they are certainly better equipped to survive the global economic malady that confronts us for at least the immediate future. In an unprecedented situation, where the world financial system has caught a massive cold, and as yet no therapy is proving effective, few pundits are prepared to stick their necks out and predict the depth and durability of the recession. But the Thais are happier. Why worry about those things one cannot change...

The Mont Blanc - click to see full-size photo

A reminder of the illusion of control of man's environment yesterday, standing on a 3000m snowy peak on the French/Italian border, looking across to the Mont Blanc at close to 5,000 metres. Hardly the roof of the world, but those familiar with the extreme conditions, it's close enough to feel more than a little vulnerable and, somehow insignificant. Perhaps Thai fatalism and equanimity better equips them to deal with the ups and downs life can throw our way...